Lessons Learnt from the 16/17 FPL Season
Taking
risks can be beneficial, but do so sparingly
For
FPL managers, there’s no better feeling than taking a big risk that pays off.
Doing so can see a steep ascent up the rankings. However, more often than not,
big risks fail, resulting in a steep plummet down the rankings. As a result, it
worth tossing up the risk vs reward of a decision. In terms of captain choices,
there are two options FPL managers can take; ‘sword’ or ‘shield.’ For the most
part of the season, the safest thing to do is make ‘shield’ decisions. This
means playing it safe, such as captaining Kane or Lukaku, who are expected to
score most weeks and will be captained by a high percentage of all FPL
managers. Using your ‘shield’ will enable you to set yourself in a solid
position (as long as the rest of your team is doing reasonably well) and
maintain the rank without too many significant falls. ‘Sword’ choices on the
other hand can catapult you up the rankings further than ‘shield’ choices. For
example, captaining Shaqiri (13) last season resulted in a rise of 84k, whereas
captaining Coutinho (11) only resulted in a 28k rise for me. Although the
Shaqiri ‘sword’ move paid off, the downside of such a decision outweighs the
positives. For example, in GW28 I chose to captain a ‘sword’ (Lanzini), who
blanked, whilst highly owned players Lukaku (1 goals and 1 assist) and King (3
goals) both excelled, seeing my rank drop 156k. Furthermore, in GW24, I made
another ‘sword’ captain choice, opting for Barkley (12). Although Barkley
returned a large haul, his teammate and popular captain choice Lukaku netted 4
goals, meaning I was 18 points worse off opting for my differential. This saw
my rank drop by 20k. Another aspect of FPL where managers need to toss up the
risk vs reward of their decision is in relation to transfers. Simply, taking
hits should be avoided. For each -4 you take, your rank drops around 20k before
a ball has even been kicked for that GW. Taking hits for goalkeepers, defenders
or ‘punts’ should also be avoided, as in the likely event that they blank, you
will be far worse off. It is only advisable to take a hit when it is a poor
performing player out for one in red-hot form or a fixture proof player, whom
not owning will affect your rank. Therefore, risks in relation to captain
choices or transfers should only be made when you are almost positive the move
will get you more points than what you will get from the players who you
already have. So, play it safe for the most part of the season, and take risks
every now and again to jump up the rankings gradually.
Monitor
the suspension tightrope, but don’t let it determine your transfers
Player
suspensions can cause major problems in FPL, as managers may be forced to play
with one short, to make a transfer, or lose value. From this perspective, try
and avoid players who are walking the suspension tightrope. However, another
perspective needs to be considered. In some instances, red-hot form players can
be close to a suspension. If this occurs, do not let the possible suspension
deter you from transferring the player in. By not owning the player, your rank
could be significantly affected. Also, once players pick up their 4th
yellow card, they usually become more cautious as they do not want to spend a
week on the sideline. This occurred last season with Diego Costa. Costa started
the season with a bang, netting 5 goals and providing 1 assist in the first 7
GWs. However, by this stage, he has already picked up 4 yellow cards. Despite this
form, FPL managers were deterred from transferring Costa in due to his imminent
suspension. Holding off on transferring Costa due to this though would
ultimately be the wrong decision. He then avoided a yellow card for the next 10
GWs, picking one up in GW17, by which stage he had already scored 13 goals and
picked up 5 assists. Therefore, it is important to avoid players who are
walking the suspension tightrope, but if a player is banging in regular goals
and not owning them in affecting your rank, don’t let the suspension deter you
and transfer them in.
Squad
depth is crucial
For
the first portion of the season, this lesson isn’t very important, and you can
get away with having fodder on your bench. This is because players are still
fresh from the off-season and external competitions haven’t taken much of a
toll yet. A good time to start offloading your fodder is in your first WC. However,
by the time December comes around, all 15 players in your squad should be first
team regulars. PL managers want to protect their players from injury, so when
fatigue kicks in once the fixtures come thick and fast, rotation will come into
play. This rotation will be more common in the ‘big’ teams, as bench players
are of higher quality, meaning the managers will be more comfortable resting
their stars and playing bench players. For FPL, this rotation causes major
headaches, and the worst part about it is that you don’t know who will be rested and
when. For example, highly owned defender Antonio Valencia was rotated for the
most part of the second half of the season so that he would be fully fit for
Europa League matches. Other big names such as Hazard, De Bruyne and Sanchez
were also rested at times last season, usually in favourable matches where FPL
managers want them to play. To combat this, FPL managers need a squad full of
players who will receive minutes regularly. This will mean that your rank will
be less affected when a star player is rested, and you have greater flexibility
when making transfers and captain decisions.
Fixtures
are important, but let your decisions be made by form
This
one seems like a bit of a cliché, but it has been proven time and time again.
Undoubtedly, fixtures are very important when making decisions in FPL. Most FPL
managers look for players with a favourable fixture run, which defines their
appeal. For example, many managers transferred Rondón in last season for a favourable
7 game run. However, despite the fixtures (HUL, SUN, mid, STK, whu, BOU, CRY), Rondón’s
form was abysmal during this run, picking up only 1 assist. So, instead of
having your decisions determined by fixtures, which may see you transfer in
players with poor underlying stats and returns, look for form players instead. Form
is one of the strongest things in football, and a form player or team high on
confidence is hard to stop. When this is occurring, FPL managers should opt for
these players, regardless of fixtures. For example, in the second half of last
season, Josh King netted goals for fun. However, despite numerous 10+ hauls and
exceptional underlying statistics, many FPL managers decided to bench or avoid
King when playing against the ‘big’ clubs. This turned out to be detrimental,
as King scored against Chelsea (h), Liverpool (a), Manchester United (a) and
Everton (a) in a short period. Therefore, fixtures are important, but nowhere
near as important as form, which should be the main factor determining your
decisions this FPL season.
Additional lessons
·
Go with your gut. It’s your team, so you
make the final decisions.
·
Monitor twitter and football sites for
rumours regarding injuries, team news, etc.
·
Study player and team statistics to help
you make more informed decisions.
·
Watching matches is the best way to
decide who will be a good FPL asset.
· Have fun! After all, FPL is just a game.
Enjoy it and don’t be too disheartened if you do poorly.
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