The FPL run-in - Top tips from experienced FPL managers to keep you in good stead ahead of the final 10 gameweeks
It's that time of the season again. The FPL run-in. With only 10 gameweeks (GWs) remaining in the 2017/18 FPL season, one mistake can derail a season's worth of good work. These GWs are probably the most important of the year, but also the most challenging.
As a result, we have complied 5 top tips to keep you in good stead for the FPL run-in. These tips have been provided by members of the FPL community, and we have explained why the tips are relevant and useful.
Chief's Tip (@FPLHints)
If
you want to protect your rank, captain safe picks.
At
this stage of the season, picking the wrong captain could be fatal. Whilst you
have a low score for the week, thousands of other FPL managers could have used
one of their remaining chips successfully, giving them a massive rank boost.
So, if you are happy with your rank, look to consolidate by playing it safe and
picking a proven, in form FPL asset who is popularly owned. By doing this, you
are significantly reducing the chance of a large rank drop, because if your
captain fails, so will the captain of most other FPL managers too.
For example,
in the 2016/17 season, I had a quite high rank, but wanted to push into the top
10k. As a result, I ignored safe captain picks such as Eriksen and Hazard, and captained
the differential Negredo (bou, SUN) in DGW34. Negredo blanked, and my rank fell
significantly. In DGW37, I again took a risk, ignoring popular captain picks
Jesus, Kane, Coutinho and Sánchez, instead captaining Aaron Ramsey (stk, SUN).
Ramsey scored 6 points, whilst the others all scored 19+. Thus, my rank
plummeted again.
If want to gamble on a player, but you don’t want to risk
a large rank drop, you can bring a differential in, but captain highly owned
players.
In the words of Chief, to consolidate your rank, be boring in terms of
captain picks at this stage of the season.
Stag's Tip (@FPLStag)
Focus on points only now, not team value.
A
major focus of FPL managers is trying to transfer in players who are going to
rise in price, and transferring out players who are going to drop in price.
This is so in order to build up team value, which enables FPL managers to fit
in more expensive players into their teams.
However, according to Stag, FPL
managers should not focus too much on team value at this stage of the season.
Instead, focus should solely be on points. With so little GWs left, you should
be putting all your effort into attaining as many points as possible.
In this
way, if you still feel a player is worthy of selection in your FPL team, do not
take them out just because they are dropping in price. Similarly, don’t bring a
price rising player in over another player just because of the price rise –
bring in the player you think will score the most points.
For example, in GW7,
despite Jesus’ form and favourable upcoming fixtures, he had just been rested and was
falling in price, so I transferred him out for Morata, who was rising in price.
Morata then got injured and fell £0.2, and Jesus scored 18 points in GWs 7-8, rising £0.3.
Performing such a transfer at this time of the season should be
avoided.
Seb's Tip (@WFC_Seb)
Plan ahead.
There are not many things worse in FPL than thinking up of a great transfer, only to be
just short in terms of cash.
So, to prevent this from happening, be sure to
plan ahead at this stage of the season.
Look at the fixtures of each team, and
think about who you will be wanting and when you will be wanting them.
This is
especially important ahead of the double gameweeks if you have already used
your wildcard.
Once you have examined the fixtures, write down who you want
in/out in a certain GW. For example, ‘GW30: C.Wilson > Niasse.’ Do this
until you have all the players you want in your team.
After this, go through
each transfer week by week on the FPL transfers page and see if you have sufficient funds to make your desired moves. If not, think of a different player to take out, or a cheaper player to bring in. Do this until
you can fit all the transfers in under, and make sure to leave about £0.3-£0.5
in the bank to cater for price rises.
If you do this, you will cut out
instances where you are just short of being able to make a transfer.
Furthermore,
planning ahead means that FPL managers will be less likely to burn transfers
unnecessarily, as they will be aware that the transfer will be required down the
track.
Luke's Tip (@WFC_LS_Potzi)
Special thanks to Chief, Stag and Ben for their input.
Fixtures are key.
Although many of the final games of the
Premier League season can be chaotic, where upsets occur due to the desperation
of some clubs to avoid relegation, cement a top 4 spot, or clinch a title, it is
also a period of the season where FPL managers are looking to solidify their
rank.
For many FPL managers, they see a dip in their overall rank at this time of the season due to taking
unnecessary risks and transfer hits in order to win
mini-leagues and claim off-season supremacy and bragging rights.
For managers
to not see a decrease in overall rank, it is a good measure to pay close
attention to fixture difficulty and fixture certainty.
By the back end of the
season (final 10 games), it has become vastly evident what EPL clubs are
proficient or deficient in certain areas of the field. Stoke (54) and
West Ham (50) have conceded the most and second most amount of goals in the
league to date and with Stoke facing Arsenal, Spurs and Liverpool in their
remaining games, it is a best bet to stock up on opposition attackers like
Aubameyang, Firmino and Kane whose teams sit second, third and fourth in team
scoring.
This seems like a no brainer for FPL
managers, but many of us slip into the train of thought that we need to take
risks on players that have a 50-50 chance of performing well, in order to get
the edge on mini-league or overall rank opponents. From the past, the likes of
Dusan Tadic come to mind, who one week can score a 24 point return and then go
invisible and blank for 10 weeks.
Additionally, taking a punt on a player like
Pascal Gross (Brighton) who has recently been getting ditched but has an
“alright” run of fixtures and performed relatively strong this season in an
attempt to capitalise on points is a poor decision. Some of Brighton’s fixtures
include Everton, Leicester, Huddersfield, Crystal Palace and Burnley, but for a
side like Brighton who sit 14th in the league, these games are
just as losable as they are winnable. The likes of Willian, Jesse
Lingard and Cesc Fabregas, whose teams are more than likely to win most of
their remaining fixtures, are safer options for returns in the run in.
Furthermore, the fixture dilemma becomes
a major factor during double DGWs, where 2 games is a hopeful excuse to
take a hit and bring in a player like Chicharito or Christian Benteke that may
have 2 fixtures.
In the past, single GW players have been just as
proficient in scoring returns as DGWers should the fixture be
favourable.
This season for instance, in DGW34, Liverpool will be playing one match against Bournemouth at home, whilst Southampton will be playing against Chelsea at home and Swansea away. One of Southampton’s fixtures is favourable (Swansea) but it
is unlikely any player will perform in the Chelsea fixture, making a Southampton
hit transfer for the sake of the 2 games unfavourable. Instead a double-up or
single transfer of Mo Salah, Roberto Firmino or Sadio Mane is a far better option, even though Liverpool only have one match.
Remember - fixtures are the main
element in maintaining your overall rank right up until the end of GW38, so
keep checking those fixture ratings.
Ben's Tip (@BenDinnery)
Ensure you have a deep bench and be
flexible.
It’s great to plan ahead, but you also
need to be flexible.
Don’t go into the back end of the FPL season with limited
tactics available. Make sure you have 15 players in your team that regularly
start for their side.
Ben identifies that around the DGWs and as sides progress
deeper into European and domestic cup competitions, managers tend to rotate and
key players will be rested as fixtures are prioritised.
As a result, having 15
starting players will ensure that even if someone is rested, you will have
points coming off the bench.
Moreover, a deep bench will enable your team to
switch between different formations depending on which players are available
and in or out of form.
Being flexible by having starting players on your bench
as well as multiple players who would make top captain picks will limit the
likelihood of moments of panic should one of yours players get injured or be
rested.
Special thanks to Chief, Stag and Ben for their input.
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