What does FPL 2018/19 have in store for Mo Salah?
Mo
Salah was near unstoppable during the 2017/18 season. On his way to winning the
award for the Player of the Season, Salah netted 32 goals and provided 12
assists. Translated into FPL points, Salah banked a total of 303 points – an
all-time FPL record.
Just
after the conclusion of the 2017/18 season, some tweets and articles by the
Official FPL page caused some stir on twitter.
The
first of these regarded Salah’s price in FPL this season. In this article, Mark
Sutherns suggested that FPL managers will be forced to fork out a record high
price of £14m for Salah this season, claiming that they will happily do so.
The
second of these articles referenced Salah’s position next season, indicating
that he may no longer be classified as a midfielder, but instead as a forward.
In
this article, we will shed greater light on both of these claims. We won’t be
dismissing them as inaccurate, but instead will provide greater insight into
whether or not Salah’s price should be £14.0m, or if he should be classified as
a forward this season.
The
Price
Salah
started the 2017/18 FPL season priced at £9.0m and finished at £10.6m, with a
season high price of £10.7m. For Salah to reach £14.0m as suggested, he will
need to rise £3.4m.
Going
off past trends, this seems unlikely.
The
more expensive a player is, the less it becomes that they will rise in price to start the
subsequent season.
A
prime example of this is Alexis Sánchez. In the 2016/17 FPL season, Sánchez totalled a mammoth 264 points. This score was only 31 points shy of Luis
Suarez’s then record of 295 FPL points during the 2013/14 season. At the end of
Sanchez’s most dominant ever season, he was priced at £11.7m. The following
season (2017/18), Sánchez was priced at £12.0m. This means that with a score
that was one of the highest ever, Sánchez only rose £0.3m to start the next
season.
Similarly,
at their peak with scores in the low-mid 200s, Wayne Rooney (11/12 – 12/13),
Harry Kane (16-17 – 17/18), Santi Cazorla (12-13 – 13/14), Cesc Fabregas (09/10
– 10/11), Christian Eriksen (16/17 – 17/18), Dele Alli (16-17 – 17-18) and Eden
Hazard (14-15 – 15/16) all earned price rises of £1.5m or less the following season, with some even
starting the next season at a lower price.
Although
Salah did achieve an all-time record overall score of 303 FPL points, rising
£3.4m from £10.6 seems a step too far.
In
a similar category to Sánchez in terms of playing style, Salah only scored 39
points more than Sánchez. So, does an extra 39 points justify an additional
£3.1m rise? No.
Throughout
the years, it has been very rare for a player who ends a season at a premium
price to rise more than £1.5m the following year, even if the player does register
an extremely large, or even record, overall points tally in FPL. This means that Mo Salah's FPL price this season should not reach £14.0m.
The Position
In
the 2016/17 season, Mo Salah was classified as a midfielder in FPL. This came
off the back of 26 starts on the right wing for Roma in 2015/16. Last season,
Salah again spent the majority of his time on the right wing, starting in this
position on 44 occasions.
Based
on past FPL classification trends, the only players who are classified as
forwards are central strikers, not wingers.
For example, out of all FPL forwards last season, only Marcus Rashford, Danny Welbeck and Collin Quaner started more games on the wing than they did at centre forward. As a result, pretty much every FPL forward was almost entirely a centre forward for their club.
People commonly believe that the left and right wingers in a front three are forwards, but this does not correlate to FPL. Players such as Raheem Sterling, Leroy Sané and Sadio Mané all play on the wing as part of a front three, yet they are all classified as midfielders. Therefore, the same should apply to Salah, and the FPL forward classification should again be bestowed only on the centre forwards of each respective club.
For example, out of all FPL forwards last season, only Marcus Rashford, Danny Welbeck and Collin Quaner started more games on the wing than they did at centre forward. As a result, pretty much every FPL forward was almost entirely a centre forward for their club.
People commonly believe that the left and right wingers in a front three are forwards, but this does not correlate to FPL. Players such as Raheem Sterling, Leroy Sané and Sadio Mané all play on the wing as part of a front three, yet they are all classified as midfielders. Therefore, the same should apply to Salah, and the FPL forward classification should again be bestowed only on the centre forwards of each respective club.
If Sterling,
STAY TUNED
FOR OUR 2018/19 FPL PREDICTED PRICES. COMING SOON.
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