The Southampton Situation
With two double gameweeks (DGWs) in the
final three rounds of the season, as well as three home fixtures out of five
matches during this period, the appeal Southampton FPL options is about to take
a massive boost. Apart from Virgil Van Dijk, Charlie Austin is the only first
team regular injured at the moment, although he has returned to first team
training and could feature in the final game of two. With a full compliment of
players to choose from, not only does Claude Puel have some big decisions to make, but so too FPL mangers!
The Team
So, what will the Southampton's starting line up
look like in the last few rounds?
Due to the heavy fixture schedule, no
player is 100% nailed on for the rest of the season as it is impossible to
predict how the players will pull up after matches. With this being said
however, Puel does have his first choice line up which he will go to when he
has a chance:
Forster in goals is the only player who is
a guaranteed starter. Yoshida and Stephens will continue as the first choice
centre back pairing, and Caceres provides cover if needed and may start one
game, probably the first of GW37. Bertrand and Cedric will continue at left and
right back, but McQueen and Martina could be called upon if needed. Oriol Romeu
and Stephen Davis should continue in the middle of the park. They will be
battled by Jordy Clasie and Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg who will be pushing for
recalls, which they may receive in one or two games. The attacking midfield
positions will be tough to call. When all players are fit, Tadić will start at
no. 10, with Redmond on the left and James Ward-Prowse on the right. Redmond
and Ward-Prowse have both received a rest in the last two GWs, so they will be
rejuvenated and ready for the final few GWs. Puel is yet to rest his other
attacking midfielder in Tadić, so don’t be surprised if he is rested for a
match in GW36. Sofiane Boufal has started the past two games, but he did not
impress and should drop back to the bench. If any of the first choice trio are
suffering from fatigue, Boufal will be ready to fill in, as will Jay Rodriguez
and Shane Long. Gabbiadini seems like the most certain starter out of the attacking
options as he has had his minutes restricted since his return from injury, so
he shouldn’t be suffering from too much fatigue. However, after his recent
injury woes, Puel may also look to rotate him with Long or Rodriguez to ensure
that there is not a re-occurrence of the injury. Charlie Austin could start the
final game of the season, and he could fit in as a lone striker in a 4-2-3-1,
or along side another striker in a 4-4-2.
The Fixtures
Now, let's have a look at Southampton's remaining fixtures:
On the defensive front, the GW37 fixture against Middlesbrough
looks particularly appealing, as Boro have the worst home attack in the league
(16 goals). GW38 vs Stoke at St Mary's also promises well for the Saints
defense, as Stoke have the third worst away attack this season (14 goals), and
have not scored in 6 successive away matches. Although owning a Southampton
defender playing Arsenal may not seem like the best idea, Arsenal have scored 1
goal or less in four out of their last 5 away games, so don't be surprised if
the Saints keep a shut out in this one. The two matches that stand out as
having limited potential for clean sheets are the home encounter with
Manchester United and the away match against Liverpool. Liverpool are the
league's top scorers this season, whilst Manchester United have only blanked
away from home three times this season (against Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester City), and have
scored 11 goals in their last 5 away games.
Now moving onto the attacking front, Southampton’s fixtures offer
serious potential. In GW36, they face Liverpool (away), who have only kept 4
home clean sheets from 17 games this season, and Arsenal (home), whose away
defense has been abysmal, conceding 2+ goals in 8 out of their last 10 away
games. In GW37, they will come up against Middlesbrough (away), who have
conceded 2+ goals in 5 out of their 9 games against top half opposition this
season. They will also play Manchester United (home) in GW37, and this is the
only fixture where attacking returns seems unlikely. The Red Devils rear-guard has conceded the least away goals in the league this season, including 6 clean
sheets and only 2 goals conceded in their last 8 away games. Finally, GW38 will
see the Saints play Stoke (home) who have been extremely poor away from home
recently, with only 1 point from their last 6 away games, conceding 11 goals.
The Players
So, all with this in mind, let’s take a look at the stats of
Southampton players since GW21:
Summary
·
Due
to Southampton’s heavy fixture schedule, there is a great risk of rotation
among their players.
·
Forster
and Yoshida are the most nailed on defenders, whilst Redmond and Gabbiadini
look the safest options in attack after having their minutes restricted lately.
·
All
of their fixtures apart from the Manchester United match promise well on the
attacking front, whilst only the Red Devils and Liverpool will provide
extremely tough tests for the Saints backline.
·
Despite
Bertrand’s high average BPS and his attacking returns, there are better options
from other teams in his price range.
·
Instead,
FPL managers should turn to Yoshida, who is over £1.0 cheaper and ranks first in the CBI category, as well as picking up
the equal most bonus points since GW21.
·
Cedric also
provides great value at £4.8 given his attacking statistics, but a lack of
bonus points and a greater tendency to pick up yellow cards (5 compared to Yoshida's 2) means that Yoshida
should be FPL mangers’ first preference from the Southampton backline.
·
Attacking wise,
Gabbiadini is clearly the best option, with the most goals, shots, shots inside
the box and highest average BPS, despite 400-500 minutes less that Tadić,
Redmond and JWP.
·
Second to
Gabbiadini would be Redmond. This is because although Tadić has a significantly
greater amount final third passes and assists, their shot frequency, shots
inside the box, chances created and average BPS score are similar.
·
As a result, the £1.0
saved by getting Redmond instead of Tadić could be used to upgrade elsewhere.
Great article mate! it really summed up all about "The Southampton Situation" which is kinda a headache for GW36 way more than GW37, i was just hoping to see a bit more of the name of Ward-Prowse, he is a talented set-piece taker, also with only £5.0 with a scoring potentials same like his midfielders teammates, to me he is a good deal budget wise, and a great differential since he rested GW35, let me know your opinion about him, once again cheers for your nice article i enjoyed reading it.
ReplyDelete"sorry for my bad English :)"
Hi mate. Thanks for the feedback. We really appreciate it. I agree about Ward-Prowse. His set pieces are always dangerous and that boosts his potential to score points (I should have mentioned that in the article). However, I believe that his reduced threat in open play compared to Redmond dents his appeal. By all means, he is one of if not the best midfield option price at £5.5 or under, I just think forking out the extra £0.9 for Redmond's added attacking threat is the best way to go.
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